The avalanche death toll across the European Alps has now pᴀssed 100 — and winter is not even half over.

In France alone, 28 people have been killed since December, more than triple the typical figure at this point in the season. Italy recorded 13 fatalities in a single week — a national record. Criminal investigations are underway in France, Italy, and Switzerland. A pᴀssenger train was knocked off its tracks. A mountain refuge had its windows blown out by a wall of snow that tore through its kitchen.

And in western Austria on Friday, a 490-yard-wide avalanche near St. Anton am Arlberg buried five off-piste skiers, killing three of them, including an American.

The same day, the United States Department of State issued a formal travel warning, calling conditions across the Alps “extremely dangerous.”

But the statistic that tells the real story is not the total ᴅᴇᴀᴅ.

It is this: one of the skiers killed in Val d’Isère, France, last week was traveling with a professional guide. The guide survived. The avalanche struck one day after authorities activated a rare red avalanche alert — only the third time in 25 years that warning had been issued in the region.

The prefect of Savoie had formally advised against all off-piste activities, ski touring, and snowshoeing.

The group went anyway.

Two British men — Stuart Leslie, 46, and Shaun Ovey, 51 — are ᴅᴇᴀᴅ. The Albertville public prosecutor has opened a manslaughter investigation.

Four thousand miles away in California, a nearly identical investigation is unfolding after nine people were killed on Castle Peak during an avalanche cycle driven by the same buried weak layer.

Two continents. Two guided groups. Two sets of warnings issued in stark language.

The same question lingers over both: Who decides when the mountain is too dangerous — even for the professionals?

Ten Days That Rewrote the Crisis

When the season’s toll stood at 77, Italy’s Aosta Valley was the epicenter. France had just raised its alert to red. Switzerland escalated to Level 5 — the maximum on Europe’s avalanche danger scale — for the first time in years.

Then the mountains escalated further.

Near the village of Goppenstein in Switzerland, an avalanche struck a pᴀssenger train, knocking it partially off its tracks and injuring five people.

On February 17, a mᴀssive slide swept across a road and walking path near the hamlet of L’Arve in southeastern France. One person was killed — not skiing, not touring — simply walking during a Level 5 warning. Army specialists were deployed. Rescue operations were repeatedly suspended because responders themselves risked burial.

In La Grave, France, two skiers died in the Couloir corridor. Helicopters could not land; rescuers skied in. Both victims were found in cardiac arrest.

Austria, initially spared, then saw the crisis explode.

On February 18, a 71-year-old Dutch skier triggered an avalanche in the Tyrolean Alps while skiing with his son. The son wore a transceiver. The father did not. His body was found an hour later by an avalanche dog.

That same day, two German nationals died in separate Austrian incidents. In Switzerland’s canton of Graubünden, a 49-year-old German man was killed while skiing with his 15-year-old son. The boy survived.

Then came Friday.

Near St. Anton am Arlberg, a 1,500-foot-wide slab fractured across a slope at 6,500 feet. Five off-piste skiers were buried. Three died — including an American and a Polish national. A 21-year-old Austrian succumbed to injuries later that evening. Two others survived.

Elsewhere in Tyrol, a 42-year-old German man was swept 200 to 300 meters downslope while skiing with his 16-year-old son. The father died. The son, injured, called for help himself.

In Vorarlberg, a Swiss snowboarder triggered a slab on a 40-degree slope and was completely buried. His companion stood unharmed.

The Alps stretch more than 1,200 kilometers across eight countries. This season, the crisis has touched at least five: France, Italy, Switzerland, Austria, and Slovakia.

The culprit beneath them all is the same.

The Weak Layer No One Can See

According to experts at France’s National ᴀssociation for the Study of Snow and Avalanches and Switzerland’s WSL Insтιтute for Snow and Avalanche Research, the disaster began in November.

After early snowfall, a prolonged period of high atmospheric pressure and clear skies transformed the lower snowpack into angular grains — fragile, faceted crystals that do not bond well with surrounding layers.

On their own, these grains are harmless.

But when meters of fresh snow accumulate above them, they act like ball bearings — a conveyor belt that allows the entire slab to slide with devastating speed.

Over recent weeks, an unusual southerly jet stream has deposited heavy snowfall across the Alps, loading a foundation that was never structurally sound.

The fracture pattern now driving avalanches from southeastern France to western Austria is consistent across the range. It is the same mechanism that triggered catastrophic slides this winter in North America.

The weak layer is not regional.

It is hemispheric.

The Most Dangerous Number Is Three

Christine Pielmeier, an avalanche forecaster in Switzerland, has warned that while Level 5 conditions are rare and dramatic, the greater danger may lie ahead.

As fresh snow stabilizes, danger ratings are expected to drop from Level 4 (“High”) to Level 3 (“Considerable”).

Statistically, Level 3 is when the most people die.

The slopes look calmer. The sky clears. Skiers return. But the buried weak layer remains intact, hidden beneath seemingly stable snow.

Most fatal avalanches are triggered by the victims themselves.

A Season Tracking Toward Record Territory

The numbers are stark:

• Over 100 avalanche deaths across Europe so far this winter

• 70 deaths last winter

• 87 deaths between 2023–2024

• 131 deaths in 2020–2021

• 147 deaths in 2017–2018 — the worst modern season on record

With two and a half months of prime touring season remaining, the current trajectory is approaching the ᴅᴇᴀᴅliest winter in nearly a decade.

In Tyrol alone, officials counted nearly three dozen separate avalanche incidents in a single Friday, and more than 200 within one week.

Tyrol Governor Anton Mattle acknowledged the mounting toll, noting that heavy snowfall is drawing people into the backcountry despite extreme risk.

The Accountability Question

After the red alert in France — only the third such alert in 25 years — guided groups still entered avalanche terrain.

Cedric Bonnivard, piste director at Val d’Isère, responded to questions about the fatalities with a blunt ᴀssessment: “Mountains will never be a leisure park. There are risks that you have to accept and stay humble.”

That may be philosophically true.

But prosecutors in Albertville are now examining whether operating during a red alert crosses the line from accepted risk into criminal negligence.

Historically, most European avalanche investigations end without charges. Waivers are signed. Risk is ᴀssumed. Tragedy is mourned. The system resets.

Yet this winter feels different.

Because the pattern is repeating — across countries, across continents, across professional guiding operations — under warnings that use nearly identical language.