Increasingly severe rainstorms put people and structures built on floodplains at risk.

Since 16 January, nine named storms have battered the western Mediterranean, with Spain, Portugal and Morocco hardest hit.

In Spain, flooding and infrastructure damage from heavy winds forced over 12,400 evacuations, affected 115,000 people in 19 villages in the Sierra de Cádiz, and led the Spanish Government to commit more than €7 billion in aid, with an additional €1.78 billion from the Andalusian regional government.

Portugal recorded six fatalities during Storm Kristin, with winds up to 202 km/h leaving one million people without electricity and causing widespread structural damage, and the Portuguese Government has already committed to supporting the reconstruction with a package of €3.5 billion.

In northern Morocco, flooding caused 43 deaths, displaced 300,000 people and inundated 110,000 homes, prompting a €280 million recovery plan.

While the high winds were exceptional and caused part of the damages, the most severe impacts are due to the heavy rain accompanying each storm that led to flooding in various regions. Later in the season the increasingly saturated soils also contributed to the flooding.

Researchers from Spain, Portugal, Morocco, the Netherlands, Sweden, South Africa Switzerland, India, Denmark, the United States, and the United Kingdom collaborated to ᴀssess the extent to which human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the heavy rainfall event. To capture the range of impacts from the various rainfall events affecting the region, we analyse 1-day maximum rainfall (Rx1day) during the winter half year October–March. We focus on two regions that are climatologically different and have both been heavily impacted, Northern Portugal/Northwest Spain [40-44N 7–9.5W] and Southern Portugal/Southwest Spain, plus Northern Morocco [34-39N 3.5-10W]. In addition the study analyses whether there is a change in the frequency of the type of circulation pattern, leading to the storms.